test

The Importance of the US 10-year Treasury Yield

By Vikas Arkalgud – 1 June 2021 The US 10-year treasury yield is one of the most important interest rates in the world. In this article, we will explore what the US 10-year treasury is and why its yield figure is important to the macro economy. What is the US 10-year Treasury? Treasuries are debt instruments issued…

Are you interested in pursuing a career in equity research?

By Nick Player – 1 April 2021 Source: WallStreetMojo First of all, what does equity research entail? The main function of the equity research division is to conduct detailed financial analysis and research on a specific investment and make important recommendations to the investors. These recommendations are based on whether the fair value of each particular…

Belt and Road Initiative – A Path to Global Integration or Domination?

By Jay Han- 1 April 2021China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project, also known as Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is a policy for Chinese investment in infrastructure which is targeted at connecting China with the rest of the world, in hopes of further developing the poorer parts of china’s economy, as well as stimulating the landlocked…

Is the Future the Past for the Peso?

By John Mouratidis- 23 March 2021 In the foreign exchange market, there is one currency with an unparalleled reputation for never-ending declines in its value: the national currency of Argentina, the Argentine Peso. It is a curious case, inextricably linked with the cratering of Argentina’s economy and the institutional political rot which plagues it. But unlike…

2021 T1 W5

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WEEK 15th March 2021 Carl Braganza AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair have modestly strengthened, closing the week at 0.7764 from the 0.7708 opening, finishing above the 50MDA. The USD fell for three consecutive days during the past week due to investors feeling less concerned about rising inflation. Soft consumer prices data helped stabilise government…

Fortune Favours the Fast

By Vikas Arkalgud- 21 March 2021 Speed. What would you give to do something quicker? Perhaps you would spend a couple of extra dollars on a quicker route to campus. Maybe you would spend a few hundred on a quicker, faster CPU. You may even be willing to spend thousands of extra dollars on a quicker,…

2021 T1 W4

Dear UNSW Forex members, Welcome back to our weekly newsletter! In our weekly newsletter you will find market analysis and highlights, as well as updates on upcoming events and sponsorship opportunities. Please follow our UNSW ForexSoc Facebook page to stay informed of upcoming events and opportunities. We’re excited to be partnering with StarBeta again this year for our…

Breaking Into The Finance Industry As a Non-Business Student

By Yash Kalwani- 24 June 2020 Daniel’s background as a computer science studentDaniel studies computer science student at Imperial College London, and was a quantitative analyst intern at a hedge fund in London. One of his many interests besides coding, gaming, and weight lifting is helping and teaching non-business students about the business world and its…

Putting Forex Trading and Investing into Perspective

By Samuel Soo- 28 September 2020 Getting into trading Recently, I was thinking about how to answer this question – why trade and learn about the foreign exchange market?When you think of trading, you might picture this: You start off by trading in your spare time, slowly accumulating net earnings, until you reach a point where…

2020 T2 W11

MARKET MOVERS 10th August Wendy Le NZ Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement – 12 August 12:00pm The NZ official cash rate is forecasted to stay the same at the record low rate of 0.25%. As the cash rate stabilising indicates economic recovery, this may lead to a bullish NZD and AUD. An interest rate…

2020 T2 W10

d MARKET MOVERS 3rd AugustWill LiuAustralian Cash Rate – 4th August 2:30pm The Australian Cash rate is forecasted to remain steady 0.25%, with the current state of the economy and the extra uncertainty added by rising COVID 19 cases. RBA is expected to maintain optimism similar to last month’s RBA minutes where policymakers noted that ‘the downturn had…

2020 T2 W9

d MARKET MOVERS 27th JulyWendy LeAustralian CPI q/q – 29 July 11:30am Australian CPI is forecasted to decrease from 0.3% to -2.0%. This potential decline in inflation could be attributed to the spike in COVID-19 cases in Victoria and NSW. This indicates a movement away from the RBA’s target inflation rate of 2-3% meaning that in the…

2020 T2 W8

d MARKET MOVERS 20th JulyPaul HuangFed Budget Deficit Expansion US treasury reported on 13 July that the budget deficit has reached an all-time high of $864 billion in June, primarily due to stimulus programs for small businesses.  Current fiscal and monetary policies coupled with COVID-19 cases continuing to surge may indicate weakness in the dollar. China exceeds GDP forecasts…

2020 T2 W7

d MARKET MOVERS 13th JulySamuel SooCoronavirus cases continue to surge in the U.S.The U.S. passed 3 million confirmed cases of coronavirus, representing a quarter of all cases worldwideHigh record of COVID cases in the US has exacerbated fears of a second wave, making investors less certain about a swift economic recovery that was suggested previously by…

2020 T2 W6

c MARKET MOVERS 6th July Paul Huang US-China tensions China has imposed a new security law for Hongkong which allows Beijing to override the Hong Kong judicial system. In response to China’s imposition of new security law, the US house of representatives has passed a bill that penalizes banks for conducting business with Chinese officials associated…

2020 T2 W5

d MARKET MOVERS 29th June Samuel Soo Spike in COVID-19 in Australia, China and the U.S. Victoria confirms 41 new cases of Coronavirus in a day, NSW records 6 new cases, just as restrictions are loosening. U.S. records 45,000 new cases of COVID-19 on June 26, single largest increase in the pandemic, exceeding highest of 36,400 new…

Day in the Life of a Senior Accounts Manager at TRADEMAX

By Will Liu- 24 June 2020 What is Simon’s current profession?Simon works as a senior account manager at Trademax, an up and coming forex broker with operations worldwide, having branch offices located in all key financial industry hot spots. Trademax’s main base of operation remains in the Asia-pacific region and has expanded since their founding in…

2020 T2 W4

d MARKET MOVERS 22nd June Wendy Le RBA Gov Lowe SpeaksMonday 22nd June 9:00 amWith Australia slowly recovering from the effects of COVID-19 and the removal of most restrictions, hints about the future of monetary policy in Australia would likely affect the strength of the AUD. Governor Philip Lowe’s speech may provide some clues that could…

2020 T2 W3

c MARKET MOVERS 14th June Victor Shen Core Retail Sales (USD)  Tuesday 16th June 11:30 pmPartly supported by last month’s astoundingly positive job data, US core retail sales are forecasted to rebound from last month’s abysmal -17.2% to about 5.5%. Coupled with further easing of restriction, US economic outlook is looking more positive. CPI m/m (CAD)Wednesday…

2020 T2 W2

MARKET MOVERS 7th June Wendy Le ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EU)  Monday 8th June 11:45 pmThe European Central Bank tends to drop subtle hints about future monetary policy or interest rate changes during the speeches. With the EU slowly recovering from the coronavirus, any indication of monetary policy stabilizing ensure bullish continuance for the Euro. CPI m/m…

2020 T1 W10

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Stocks Up, Economy Down 19th April Adam Bi The coronavirus is still torturing the global economy with bleak data keeps coming. China on Thursday announced its GDP shrank 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, the lowest in its recorded history, which foreshadows the pain expected in the U.S. and around the…

2020 T1 W9

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Underwhelming US Job Data 12th AprilAdam BiBefore the Coronavirus pandemic spread globally, U.S. unemployment rate was at its 50-year lows. Due to social isolation measures, U.S. unemployment rate is soaring at an alarming speed. The Labor Department reported on Thursday that another 6.6 million people made new jobless claims-applications by laid-off workers for…

2020 T1 W8

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET ADP and NFP 6th AprilWill LiuLast week saw the release of the ADP and the NFP, two hard hitting employment related statistical release that often create large, but short-lived moves in the forex market. For a bit of context, the ADP and the NFP figures for Non-Farm Employment Change differ in many different ways, with…

2020 T1 W7

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Government Initiative Halts Falling AUD29th MarchAllan LiaoOn the 19th March, the RBA announced a rate cut of 25 basis points to 0.25 through a $90Billion quantitative easing program in order to counter the economic impact of domestic lockdown.As of Thursday 26th March, AUD$9Billion worth of government bonds maturing in Dec 2021 July 2022, April…

A Closer Look Into the Reserve Bank of Australia

The RBA holds the decisive factor in determining Australia’s official cash rate, with the aim of ensuring that a stable Aussie currency is maintained and maintenance of full employment is achieved. Moreover, the central bank seeks to ensure that domestic economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people are met. The RBA meets eleven times each…

US Retail Sales Report ahead of the Fed Meeting in December

Importance of Retail Sales Report The US October Retail Sales report is one of the most important economic data releases and will be economic releases the Federal Reserve will review before its December 10 FOMC meeting to decide on its interest rates stance. The report is also crucial in helping us determine whether US consumers are…

Position Sizing

Position sizing is important to understand in order to prevent over-exposing/over-leveraging your account, position sizing is very important to ensure trading consistency. About 77% of retail traders lose their whole account due to incorrect risk management. This article goes through some basics on how to calculate your risk/exposure on a trade. What is a “lot” in…

Hong Kong’s Economic State Since the Protests Began (June 2019 – Present)

Overall Hong Kong’s annual economic growth rate for the second quarter of 2019 was revised to 0.5%, compared with a previous preliminary reading of 0.6%. That is the weakest rate of expansion since the contraction experienced in the third quarter of 2009 during the GFC. This downward trend is largely resultant due to ongoing trade tensions…

Trading with Multiple Indicators

So far, we have introduced almost all of the most popular technical indicators; this article will group these indicators into four major categories and present possible strategies to profit from signals given by a combination of such indicators. Technical indicators can be defined as overlays on the chart that provide traders with additional information about future…

Weak US Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Data & Its Impact on the Market

Importance: The downward trend of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing data and continual contraction of the US manufacturing sector is vital in understanding how rising concerns about weak global growth and global trade tensions is impacting the US economy and by extension the labour market. Although recent US labour market figures showed unemployment rate reached new 50-year…

Parabolic Stop and Reverse (Parabolic SAR)

Definition The Parabolic Stop and Reverse signal abbreviated as SAR, is a technical indicator used to predict short-term trend direction, potential reversals in price and provide signals for exit and entry points. On a chart, the indicator is represented by a series of dots, either above or below an asset’s price, depending on the direction the…

Average True Range

Definition of Average True Range (ATR) The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. The true range indicator is originally designed for use with commodities markets but has since been applied to all types of securities. To understand…

Fibonacci Retracement

What are Fibonacci Retracement? Fibonacci Retracement utilises Fibonacci sequences to identify potential reversal levels. In technical analysis, a Fibonacci Retracement is created by taking the two extreme points (major peak and trough) and dividing the distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are…

Upcoming FOMC Rate Decision & Its Impact on the Market

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) holds eight regular scheduled meetings during the year, as well as other meetings if needed. The upcoming 30-31 July meeting has already caused rising confusion in the wake of market-moving speech by one if its top officials. Hence, the communication challenge faced by the US central bank has raised several…

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a versatile technical indicator that is commonly used to gauge future price momentum and direction, along with future areas of support and resistance. This indicator is most commonly used on JPY (Japanese Yen) currency pairs. In Japanese, “ichimoku” translates to “one look,” or “glance” , “kinko” means “equilibrium” or” balance” and …

2019 T2 W4

WEEK 4 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Why is the US – Federal Reserve Interest Rate so important? The US Federal Reserve chose to keep rates steady at 2.5%, however indicated a rate cut could occur in the not too distant future. Jerome Powell commented on the slowing wage increases coupled with…

Average Directional Index

Definition of Average Directional Index (ADX) Traders use the average directional index (ADX) as a technical analysis indicator to determine the strength of a trend. The trend can be up or down, which can be represented by two accompanying indicators, known as the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) respectively. The three…

Bond Yield Curve

First and foremost, the bond yield curve has a close relationship with the term structure of interest rates, to be more specific, the yield curve in some sense indicates how interest rates vary over investment horizons. Additionally, it can also be a useful tool for interpreting the market expectation of interest rate. In terms of the…

2019 T2 W3

WEEK 3 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET US – Mexico Trade Deal Why is the US – Mexico Trade Deal so important? Trump has reached a deal with Mexico and agreed to abolish the 5% tariffs on all Mexico goods coming into the US. This agreement is a significant milestone and has prevented the US-Mexico- Canada agreement from deteriorating…

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are the most commonly used tool when undergoing technical analysis. Support levels and resistance levels are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as barriers, preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain direction. Support Support is a price level where a downtrend can…

Bulls and Bears

What are the Bulls and Bears in Forex? Often traders characterise trends as bullish or bearish, although there isn’t much correlation between the two. The term bullish represents an upward trend, while bearish represents a downward trend. These jargons are often used in technical commentaries, phrases like bullish sentiment, bearish reversal, allows ease of communication between…

Triangles

A triangle is a chart pattern formed by drawing trendlines on a converging price range. There are three different types of triangle patterns, ascending, descending and symmetrical. Triangles are very useful to determine continuation/reversal trends. Ascending triangle An ascending triangle is a breakout pattern that forms when the price breaches the upper horizontal trendline. The upper trendline must…

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger bands are a technical analysis indicator with a set of lines plotted two standard deviations above and below the simple moving average (SMA). The band can be changed by adjusting the SMA settings to a different timeframe, the most common setting is the 20 day SMA setting. However, it is important to note that Bollinger Bands should not serve…

2019 T2 W2

WEEK 2 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET RBA Monetary Policy Decision & Domestic Retail Sales 4th June Why is the RBA Monetary Policy Decision important? Any changes to interest rate or outlook by the RBA, including dovish or hawkish tone, will impact the value of the AUD. Therefore, rate decisions and the RBA Monetary Policy Statement are vital to…

RSI, Stochastic and Stochastic RSI

RSI: Overview The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum based oscillator which measures both the speed (Velocity) and the change (Magnitude) of directional price movements. Momentum based oscillators essentially measure the level by which a security’s price has changed over a set period of time within a set of parameters The RSI is one of…

Technical Analysis: Moving Averages

Introduction Moving average is a very popular indicator used in technical analysis. It is considered as a lagging indicator due to the nature of it using previous price action to provide an average price even when there are large short-term price fluctuations. There are two types of moving average indicators: SMA (simple moving average) and EMA…

2019 T2 W1

WEEK 1 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Chinese Manufacturing PMI31st MayWhy is the Chinese Manufacturing PMI important?The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of China’s economic health. The purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below 50.0 means contraction. Since…

2019 T1 W9

WEEK 9 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET RBA Meeting Minutes 15th April What is the RBA Meeting Minutes and why is this report important? The Meeting Minutes is a detailed record of the RBA Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic condition that influenced Board members’ decision to either maintain, cut, or hike interest…

2019 T1 W8

WEEK 8 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)What is the US JOLTs Job Openings?US Jolts Job Openings is a survey completed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. Data is collected from employers about their businesses’ employment, openings, recruitment, etc. JOLTS is defined as Job Openings that are…

2019 T1 W7

WEEK 7 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET RBA Interest Rate Decision What is the RBA Interest Rate Decision? The Reserve Bank of Australia decides the interest rate for Australia. Interest rates may affect the valuation of a currency; hence it is monitored carefully. Interest rates provide traders an idea on how the country is going. Why is…

2019 T1 W10

WEEK 10 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Australian Inflation Data 24th April Why is the Aussie Inflation Data important? The Australian CPI (Consumer Price Index) Data is important as it provides the central bank with key information about the state of the economy. This indicator is also a vital future guidance for investors to gauge whether the…

2019 T1 W6

WEEK 6 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionWhat is the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision?The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decides the interest rate in New Zealand. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are one of the primary factors in currency valuation.Why is it important?In general, higher interest rates…

Technical Analysis: Bearish Diamond Chart Formation

Introduction A diamond chart (or diamond top) formation is a bearish chart pattern which occurs rarely at the top of considerable uptrends. It is a variation of a head-to-shoulders pattern, so investors commonly mistake every heads and shoulders as a diamond formation. The diamond top signals an impending fall, and can be applied to any time…

Technical Analysis: Head-and-Shoulders Reversal

Introduction A head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation is a chart pattern that indicates a trend reversal. It can occur at the top of an uptrend (i.e. H&S top) or the bottom of a downtrend (i.e. H&S bottom). It is important for one to keep in mind that a trend reversal must has something to reverse, which means that…

2019 Bond Rally and the Health of the Global Economy

With global economic growth already showing signs of slowdown, the correlation between growth fears and bond prices are important indicators of economic outlook. If the market turns bullish or bearish, then the probability of central banks cutting interest rates will have an enormous impact on currencies. When investors are pessimistic about economic growth and thereby inflation…

2019 T1 W5

WEEK 5 WHAT MOVED THE MARKET Federal Open Market Committee What is the FOMC? The Federal Open Market Committee is the US regulatory body charged with overseeing the country’s open market operations and the setting of monetary policy. Its public statements providing information regarding economic policies, outlooks and the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates…

2019 T1 W4

WEEK 4 Technical Analysis AUD/NZD This past week, AUDNZD, has been going on a rally starting from 1.03053. However it hit major resistance at 1.03600, which was also shown from 8th to the 11th March where breakout attempts failed causing long wicks from low buying pressure. Since then a descending triangle has been formed, which constantly…

2019 T1 W3

WEEK 3 Fundamental Analysis NONFARM PAYROLL What is the Nonfarm Payroll? Reported on the first Friday of each month, Nonfarm Payroll refers to any job excluding farm work, government agencies, non-profit organisations and self-employment in the US. The most important statistic reported from the Nonfarm Payroll is the number of additional jobs added from the previous month,…

2019 T1 W2

WEEK 2 ALL ABOUT TRADING USD/CAD   Technical Analysis USD/CAD had a slow start to the week, bouncing off the uptrend support line on Monday, and slowly moving along it Tuesday through to Thursday. Friday saw the pair rocket up 123 pips from open to close as we had bullish crossovers (Figure 1) on both the…

2019 T1 W1

Week 1 ALL ABOUT TRADING USD/CHF Technical Analysis After attempting to reach the 1.0110 major resistance, the pair suffered a strong selling pressure and posed a bearish engulfing on February 14th and a Gravestone Doji the day after, meanwhile, RSI and Stoch were both showing bearish divergence. The closing price below the up trendline on February 18thwas…

Technical Analysis: How to Read the MACD Indicator

In this article: MACD and Its ComponentsTwo Simple Ways of Using MACDMACD Continuation SignalsMACD HistogramMACD Divergence MACD and Its Components The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD; pronounced “Mac-Dee”) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) of the price of an underlying security. It is a highly effective tool that…

Metcalfe’s Law and Bitcoin

What is Metcalfe’s law? Metcalfe’s law states that the bigger the network of users, the greater the network’s value becomes. More specifically, it is proportional to the square of the number of connected users in the system. (n2). To illustrate this, we can use the example of fax machines. A single fax machine is useless, as…

London Hammer Trade

Introduction London stands as the financial centre of UK, and represents one of the largest, if not the largest, forex markets in the world. Consequently, the start of trading in the London forex exchange (7:00 or 8:00 GMT based on daylight savings time) is met with extremely high volatility. London’s market ‘sets the bar’ for what…