d

MARKET MOVERS

22nd June

Wendy Le

RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Monday 22nd June 9:00 am

With Australia slowly recovering from the effects of COVID-19 and the removal of most restrictions, hints about the future of monetary policy in Australia would likely affect the strength of the AUD. Governor Philip Lowe’s speech may provide some clues that could lead to AUD strengthening.

German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Tuesday 23rd June 5:30 pm
Flash PMI values capture the economic conditions and provide an indication of the state of the manufacturing and services sectors. Flash manufacturing PMI is expected to expand from 36.6 to 41.5 and flash services PMI is forecasted to increase from 32.6 to 41.7. This is an indication of the economic recovery of the Eurozone meaning that a bullish EUR is expected if data is better than expected and bearish if data disappoints these estimates.

NZ Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement
Wednesday June 24th 12:00pm

The NZ official cash rate is forecasted to stay at the same rate at 0.25%. A stabilising cash rate indicates economic recovery and may lead to a bullish NZD and AUD.

MAJOR NEWS

Fed Officials Increasingly Pessimistic on US Economic Recovery
22nd June

Victor Shen
 
Positive economic data such as the better than expected job data and retail sales data had fueled hopes that the US economy could bounce back more quickly than expected. But according to Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve Randal Quarles, “There has probably never been more uncertainty about economic outlook”. Powell warns that millions of people will likely still be unemployed even as the economy is on the path of recovery. Moving forward the Fed will perform stress tests on banks in order to determine the capital requirements that their banks must keep.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZD/USD

Victor Shen
 
The MACD line has recently crossed the signal line and RSI has also recently begun descent from the overbought region. I speculate that there should be enough downwards momentum left to bring the New Zealand Dollar back to the 200 MA level of 0.63182.

ANALYST OUTLOOK

Wendy Le
BCom/Econ

AUDUSD – Bullish Outlook
The AUDUSD has been following an upward trend for the last 3 months and can be expected to continue unless some unfavorable news comes out. The NZ official cash rate is also expected to stay the same and the Australian economy is gradually recovering from the COVID-19 effects. Watch out for the 0.70442 resistance level as the AUDUSD pair may test it a few times before breaking past.

Victor Shen
BEng (Hons)/Com

EUR/USD – Bearish
The Bank of England has further ramped up stimulus measures with an increase of 100 billion pounds to its bond-buying program. Despite slightly more positive than expected retail sales figures, this stimulus will likely continue hurting the Pound and drag it lower. The next target will be resistance levels of 1.11134.