Core Retail Sales (USD)
Tuesday 16th June 11:30 pm
Partly supported by last month’s astoundingly positive job data, US core retail sales are forecasted to rebound from last month’s abysmal -17.2% to about 5.5%. Coupled with further easing of restriction, US economic outlook is looking more positive.
CPI m/m (CAD)
Wednesday 17th June 11:30 pm
Canadian inflation is forecasted to increase from -0.7% to 0.8%. This improvement will help the BoC bring inflation back within the target band of 1-3%. This is will reduce the likelihood of further interest rate cuts from BOC
Unemployment rate (AUD)
Thursday 18th June 12:30 pm
Australian unemployment rate is forecast to increase from 6.2%- 7.0%. Unemployment should start falling soon as the loosening of restrictions brings more jobs back into the market
Federal Funds Rate Remains Unchanged
GBPUSD – Bearish
The GBP is likely to weaken in the coming week as on June 12th, it was revealed that the UK economy had contracted by 20.4% in April (mainly due to the lockdown). The public’s expectations on the inflation rate have fallen which indicates negative consumer sentiment. Asset purchase facility is also forecasted to expand from £645 billion to £745 billion which will weaken the GBP.
AUDUSD -Bearish Outlook
Aussie Dollar rallied to its yearly high behind strong commodity prices and higher risk-off sentiment but due to second wave COVID fears the Aussie sharply fell and RSI has since then entered overbought condition and begun to consolidate. I speculate there is still downside momentum, due to forecasted stronger US retail sales figures coupled with Australian unemployment rate forecasted to increase. AUDUSD could potentially test support level 0.67627 which has been tested 6 times this year.