NZ Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement – 12 August 12:00pm
- The NZ official cash rate is forecasted to stay the same at the record low rate of 0.25%. As the cash rate stabilising indicates economic recovery, this may lead to a bullish NZD and AUD. An interest rate cut is highly unlikely and would shock the market resulting in a significant drop in the NZD.
GBP Prelim GDP q/q – 12 August 4:00pm
- Previous prelim GDP q/q figures saw a 2.0% decrease and is forecasted to contract even further by 20.5% this quarter. If the actual GDP is better than forecasted, the GBP will strengthen.
U.S. Core CPI m/m – 12 August 10:30pm
U.S. core CPI is expected to stay the same at 0.2%. Since consumer prices are a major part of inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged to reach their 2% targeted inflation rate.
Australian Unemployment Rate – 13 August 11:30am
Last month’s unemployment rate was 7.4% and is forecasted to increase to 7.8%. The unemployment rate is an important indicator of economic conditions because of the relationship between labour market conditions and consumer spending.
AUD Fundamental Impact
GBPUSD – Bullish Outlook
The AUDCAD has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April and can be expected to continue in the short term. However, watch out for Australian unemployment rate figures on the 13th of August as a worse than expected result could weaken the AUD.
AUDUSD – Bullish
This week initially saw a temporary easing of tensions in US-China relations as everyone took a step back from the embassy spat, with fuse being lit again by Trumps renewed attack on China, issuing an order banning TikTok and WeChat from operating in the US in 45 days if they are not sold by parent Chinese companies. The continued escalation of the US-China relationship will likely weigh on both the USD and AUD, whilst also potentially provoking USD safe-haven attribute which remains transitive as people start flocking to other low yield options. Therefore, outlook is bullish for the pair in the mid to long term, however despite a stabilising of infections in Victoria, numbers still rise thereby not eliminating the possibility for another wave, hence exerting bearish pressure in the short term