Australian Cash Rate – 4th August 2:30pm
- The Australian Cash rate is forecasted to remain steady 0.25%, with the current state of the economy and the extra uncertainty added by rising COVID 19 cases. RBA is expected to maintain optimism similar to last month’s RBA minutes where policymakers noted that ‘the downturn had been less severe than feared a few months earlier’, however the rising COVID 19 cases a pessimistic shadow over these expectations.
NZD unemployment rate – 5th August 8:45am
- The unemployment rate is forecasted to worsen to 5.5% from the previous 4.2%. , this unemployment data can have far larger impacts as Jacinda Ardern’s government will turn off the COVID-19 wage subsidy tap next month, a move likely to confirm unemployment for thousands of New Zealanders during an election campaign. analysts expect New Zealand’s unemployment to reach 8% and peak at 9.7% next year.
USD NFP & unemployment rate – 7th August 10:30pm
The NFP is forecasted to be 1.51 million compared to last month completely unexpected 4.8m, with unemployment rate forecasted to improve from last months 11.1% to 10.5%. The two figures basically highlight the same conclusion providing evidence suggesting a recovery in the American economy.
Fed Fund Rate
GBPUSD – Bearish Outlook
The GBPUSD closed on a shooting star candle following 10 consecutive bullish candles, hinting at a possible reversal. This is supported by the RSI which indicates overbought conditions. Traders should watch out for the U.S. jobs report on Monday as an unexpected figure may cause the pair to be bullish.
EURUSD – Bullish
Despite being long overdue for a correction after being on the rise for the last 6 weeks, the lack of strong indicators for recovery by the USD makes it difficult to identify a reason for the pairs rise to stop. Apart from the aforementioned US data releases affecting the pair, there is no significant data coming out from the Eurozone, therefore confirming that the Wednesday’s PMI and Friday’s NFP being dominating factors in the fundamental side of the market for the pair.