Daily Commentary

Wednesday, 31th of July 2019

EUR/AUD

21:03 AEST

EURAUD is currently holding at the resistance level 1.624 after a consecutive uptrend last week. A decisive penetration of the 1.624 resistance level is expected to carry the price towards the historical resistance level 1.635. On the other hand, if the positions hold and the price are merely whipsawing, it will be difficult to tell whether the breakout will happen.

Friday, 26th of July 2019

WTI Crude Oil

11:14 AEST

The price has been falling from 60.28 last week, halted by a single doji last Friday at 55.71 that triggered an upward trend. However, the candle this Tuesday and Wednesday formed a bearish engulfing, along with gravestone doji yesterday. The price reached the highest 56.96 and was pushed down by strong selling force. A downward trend is expected to test the support level of 55.40 — the historical support (and resistance) level which has been tested many times.

Monday, 22th of July 2019

XAU/USD

18:17 AEST

From a technical perspective, gold has started its major bull run since late-2018 with no end in sight at this moment. It has penetrated its major resistance levels at 1350 and 1400 decisively. Moreover, its major bullish trend has been supported by volume patterns, where trading volume tends to be higher when gold price was on the climb and muted during periods of correction. Recently, gold price has broke out of its symmetrical triangle to the upside, signalling that gold price has finished consolidating and is now ready to resume its uptrend. A decisive close above the 1440 resistance level may set its long-term target to 1520 with support located at 1420, 1400 and 1388.

In terms of fundamental, 3 major macro themes underpins a healthy environment for gold price to rally in the second half of 2019. Firstly, bond yields across advanced economies are near historical lows with many entering into negative territories. This means investors who are seeking risk aversion may find gold to be a better hedge than low-return fixed-income investments. Secondly, Fed is believed to enter into an easing cycle soon, which weakens the dollar and pushes gold price up. Lastly, geopolitical risks in the middle-east and trade-war tensions between US and Japan, European Union and China raise the need for risk-aversion.

Saturday, 20th of July 2019

EUR/GBP

06:38 AEST

The ascending channel has at last been broken by the EURGBP sellers yesterday. As UK is selecting its new prime minister, marketing is expecting a softer Brexit. At the moment, EURGBP pulled back up from 0.89570 intra-day, this price level has been tested numerous times without success. Investors should keep an eye on this level, a decisive break will introduce more bears into the market. MACD has been losing its bullish momentum in the past few days, which is a promising sign.

Thursday 18th of July 2019

GBP/USD

23:50 AEST

GBPUSD attempted, but failed, to pierce through the 1.24750 resistance today. A shooting star is forming on the four-hour chart, indicating strong selling pressure from above. If GBPUSD is successful in breaking above the 1.24750 resistance, it will likely face more sellers near 1.25110. The British Pound is expected to remain weak, so prices will more likely turn around to retest 1.23750 rather than breaking above. RSI(3) on the four-hour chart is approaching overbought region, further, bearish momentum is slightly weaker but still evident on the MACD.

GBP/USD

02:02 AEST

GBPUSD bounced back up from 1.23800 today, which is a historical low. From the daily chart, it can be seen that the 1.24750 support was decisively broken yesterday, creating a strong signal of downtrend continuation. This is largely due to an appreciating US dollar. In the near future, GBPUSD might adjust itself since RSI(3) is close to the oversold region. It is likely to meet resistance at 1.24750 and recommence its downward movement. Note GBPUSD will first have to break through 1.23700 before being exposed to more downside region. ADX has picked up again, indicating the downward trend is quite strong.