WEEK 8

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET

US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)

What is the US JOLTs Job Openings?

US Jolts Job Openings is a survey completed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. Data is collected from employers about their businesses’ employment, openings, recruitment, etc. JOLTS is defined as Job Openings that are not filled on the final business day of the month. A job is available only if it meets all of the three requirements, including:

  1. A specific role is available to work
  2. Job starts within 30 days
  3. Active recruitment

What happened last week?

The forecast for JOLTs for February 2019 was 7.550M, which was already lower than the previous JOLTs (Jan 2019) of 7.581M. On the official release day (10th April 2019), the actual JOLTs was 7.087M, much lower than the forecast JOLTs.

How did this affect the USD?

Since JOLTs is lower than the forecast and previous month, it means there are less available jobs in America, signaling that the economy is not doing as well as before. Theoretically, this supports the idea that the USD should depreciate, however right after the announcement (12 am 10th April 2019), USD/CAD went up from 1.33105 with a high of 1.33294 and closed the hour at 1.33176. This is because the market doesn’t care that much about Job Openings compared to other announcements such as interest rates, so that other factors such as technical reasons may have caused the USD to move the way it did.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CNY/AUD

Figure 1: CNY/AUD Daily Chart

CNY/AUD peaked last month at 0.209 before rebounding off the upper resistance level to follow a continuously bearish rally all the way to now, ending this week at 0.204 for three straight days. The pair also penetrated past the support of the upwards channel, existent since the “Flash Crash”, and has therefore followed a bearish trend. This trend looks set to test the 0.2 support line as the MACD crosses into bearish territory indicating potential for more bearishness. The Stochastic RSI was able to make a bullish crossover on Wednesday after it had been oversold and dropping in price, which may alternatively indicate a reversal in price in the following few days.

EUR/JPY

Figure 2: EUR/JPY Daily Chart

It has been a bullish month for EURJPY and the momentum does not seem to be changing anytime soon. EURJPY was stuck in a downside channel until recently where the pair broke out of the channel decisively which started a new bullish trend. Yesterday the pair broke the resistance of 126.5 and now will try the next resistance at 127.277. While attempting to break the 127.277, we may see some consolidation due to the Stochastic RSI approaching overbought, this may cause it to float around 126.566. If the pair is able to break 127.277, the next potential target would be the resistance level at 129.053.

Economic Calendar for next week